Every crypto is down now and about Solana everyone thinks that it is a coin of FTX owner. Everyone is afraid that they will be poured into the market.
The market realizes that CZ now owns 10% of the tokens and that it is more likely to support the BNB chain than SOL.
Also we should consider next factors:
– Validators losses.
– There is general fear because of the collapse of Alameda’s infrastructure.
– In addition, Solana and its ecosystem just lost the investments SBF and FTX were making.
– 18 million SOLs are expected to be withdrawn from the validators staking.
– Solana’s blockchain suffered performance problems again this morning.
The most important thing to understand, comparing what is happening now with the May events with LUNA. SOL has no algorithmic mechanism which forces printing more and more SOL to maintain the rate. That’s about the difference in technology. So it is strange to expect SOL to have the same scam as LUNA had.
During yesterday and half of today, the total trading volume of SOL to USDT on Binance was about 42 million SOL. There are also pairs to ETH, BNB, BTC, etc.
And that’s just Binance. If you believe Coinmarketcap, the SOL volume on FTX is not far behind. And then there’s Coinbase, KuCoin, Huobi, Bithumb, Kraken, the US versions of Binance and FTX, and of course Dex. Raydium in the first place.
To put it very crudely, the actual trading volume of SOL in the last 36 hours was about 150 million SOL. The price has fallen by about 40% in that time. Since this morning there is a picture floating around in the internet that tomorrow 18 million more SOL will go down and everybody is panic because of this. But this is only 12% of SOL trades in the last 36 hours!
If you look at the market, most of the coins lost 10-25% during the last 24 hours. And Solana is ahead of the whole planet because of fear.
But even assuming only Alameda has 10% of the current SOL sapple – that’s 36 million tokens. And that’s still 4 times less than the trading volume of the last 2 days. If it turns out that Alameda didn’t sell anything and will do so tomorrow, I’m sure that OTC will go. There will be plenty of people willing to pick up a lot of SOLs at a 95% discount from the haves.
But even if it happens through FTX, it certainly won’t be in the market cap.
But it is a risk. Catching falling knives often leads to pain. That’s why it’s better not to take any risks at all.